What would one be getting if they signed Marco Scutaro?

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As you may have heard, Marco Scutaro is going to be a free agent
after the season.  And he will be sought after by multiple teams
looking to shore up the shortstop position.  But if a team decides to
ink Scutaro to a multi-year deal, what exactly will they be getting?

If you follow baseball astutely, then you probably understand that
this would be a career year for the Blue Jays shortstop.  A guy that
has never posted an OPS+ greater than 96, all of a sudden posts one
that is 118.  A hitter that was basically league-average in the
category of getting on base, all of a sudden reaches base well over 38
percent of the time.  And a player, Scutaro, that has never Slugged
over .400, now sits with a .442 Slugging percentage.

That would be defined as a career year, my friends.

And all this comes at age 33.  Meaning it is not likely to repeat itself, not to this degree anyway.

But hey, I am not getting on Scutaro.  Good for him.  I am glad to
see someone experiencing success late in their career.  I just wonder
whether or not it will be sustained, even for another year.

See, players at the age of 33 don’t generally learn the game, and
take their game to another level.  They don’t typically become 5 ‘WAR’
players, when they have never topped anything over 2.7.  So forgive me,
I may end up being wrong.  But I just don’t think Scutaro will ever
come close to repeating this performance.

Here are hiw ‘WAR’ totals since 2002:

-0.1, 0.3, -0.3, 1.6, 1.0, 0.2, 2.7, 4.7

There is an outlier there.  And of course it is 2009.  Marco can
probably be that player of 2008, the one with the 2.7 ‘WAR.’  But to
ask him to be a star, as he has been this year, is simply asking too
much.

One aspect of his ‘WAR’ that is much improved–along with his bat. 
Is his defense.  He has been mediocre with the glove, according to UZR,
his entire career while manning short.  But this season in 115 games,
his UZR sits at a pretty 7.6.  Is it actually better?  Or is it a flaw
in the metric?  I really don’t know the answer to that, for I am not a
scout, and I do not watch the Blue Jays enough to evaluate an
individual defender.

If a team, say the Red Sox, is interested in Scutaro this
off-season, then be aware.  Be aware of what he might revert to.  It
wouldn’t be a bad signing by any means, but the price and length have
to be looked at long and hard.

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